Monday, February 21, 2011

BANCOR - Is it a New Global Currency?

 The people who follows the IMF knows that It gets what it usually wants. It could be the same in case of New Global Currency knowns as "Bancor". In April,13, 2010 a paper entitled  “Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability” by the Strategy, Policy and Review Department of the IMF recommends that the world adopt a global currency called the "Bancor" and that a global central bank be established to administer that currency. 

Many people thought that it is some hype and rumour; which is not True. The Proposal is already submitted and now the base work for implementation is going on.

People may wonder from where this term Bancor had evolved?
If people who are following the IMF website and people who have knowledge of "Bretton Wood Agreements" they would know from where this term have been evolved. Anyhow, here is a brief history of the term "Bancor".

The term evolved way back in 1940's (I think exactly between 1942-44) when John Maynard Keynes made a proposal to have a world reserve currency - where he was conceptualising the term called "Bancor"- administered by a central bank vested with the possibility of creating money and with the authority to take actions on a much larger scale.

The Paper gives answer for the question Why bancor? Few excerpts as follows: 

A global currency, bancor, issued by a global central bank would be designed as a stable store of value that is not tied exclusively to the conditions of any particular economy.

It is believed that Bancor would play as a Nominal anchor. As a stable store of value, bancor could serve as a global nominal anchor. The variability of traded goods prices that is currently related to exchange rate volatility would be reduced.

Once liquid markets for bancor-denominated instruments exist and bancor-denominated transactions are at a par with or exceed transactions in other currencies (i.e., in a bancor-based system), bancor-denominated debt of the sovereign with the highest credit rating could serve as the global risk-free asset, off of which all risky assets are priced.

The global central bank could serve as a lender of last resort, providing needed systemic liquidity in the event of adverse shocks and more automatically than at present. If bancor were to circulate as a common currency, then current account imbalances among the adopting economies would reflect structural rather than monetary considerations.

Perception:

IMF is trying to shift for common global currency. But, how far this help the world from any crisis is really a big question. The Bancor has its own advantage as well as disadvantage. When it comes to implementation and practicality then I see only more crisis rather than stablility. I still need to go through full paper before I express my views on this "Bancor" (not on keynes term). Let us wait and see how this Bancor as a global currency evolves and comes to implementation.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

CSO Advance Estimate for 2010-11

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the advance estimates of national income at constant (2004-05) and current prices, for the financial year 2010-11, yesterday (i.e. 07.02.2010).

It said that the growth in GDP during 2010-11 is estimated at 8.6 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 8.0 per cent in 2009-10. The growth rate is estimated at 8.6 per cent for 2010-11 is due to growth rates of over 8.0 per cent in the manufacturing’, ‘construction’, 'trade, hotels, transport and communication', 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services'. 

It also declared that Agriculture sector registered a growth rate of 5.4 percent. The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth of 5.4 per cent in its GDP during 2010-11, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 0.4 per cent.

The growth in GDP for mining and quarrying and manufacturing sectors during 2010-11 is expected to be 6.2 and 8.8 percent respectively over previous year. 

The estimated growth for 2010-11 in service sector is placed at 11 per cent.


 I dont have any doubt on the growth rate is expected at 8.6% which is inline with RBI estimates of 8.5%
 
By seeing the Estimates few queries arised in my mind. The Advanced Estimates says that Agriculture have registered 5.4 growth over last years 0.4%. Many Economist in India are concerned about food inflation which is rose to 17.05% for the week ended Jan 22, 2011. Few economist feel that there is Supply Demand gap in agriculture which is the cause of rising food prices. The 5.4% growth in agriculture rises the question how it failed to meet the demand?

It is estimated that Industry sector will post 6.2% growth against 8.8% last year; Is Industrial sector is affected due to Global Crisis?. Whereas Service sector will post 11% growth, which grew at 8.7% last year. If service sector can post 11% (which is always high in contribution to GDP for almost a decade) and Agriculture sector can post 5.4% then India can easily achieve 9% growth; but  I doubt the growth rate of Agriculture.  

Some where I heard that "Statistics can be made to prove anything - even the truth".