The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the advance estimates of national income at constant (2004-05) and current prices, for the financial year 2010-11, yesterday (i.e. 07.02.2010).
It said that the growth in GDP during 2010-11 is estimated at 8.6 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 8.0 per cent in 2009-10. The growth rate is estimated at 8.6 per cent for 2010-11 is due to growth rates of over 8.0 per cent in the manufacturing’, ‘construction’, 'trade, hotels, transport and communication', 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services'.
It also declared that Agriculture sector registered a growth rate of 5.4 percent. The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth of 5.4 per cent in its GDP during 2010-11, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 0.4 per cent.
The growth in GDP for mining and quarrying and manufacturing sectors during 2010-11 is expected to be 6.2 and 8.8 percent respectively over previous year.
The estimated growth for 2010-11 in service sector is placed at 11 per cent.
I dont have any doubt on the growth rate is expected at 8.6% which is inline with RBI estimates of 8.5% .
By seeing the Estimates few queries arised in my mind. The Advanced Estimates says that Agriculture have registered 5.4 growth over last years 0.4%. Many Economist in India are concerned about food inflation which is rose to 17.05% for the week ended Jan 22, 2011. Few economist feel that there is Supply Demand gap in agriculture which is the cause of rising food prices. The 5.4% growth in agriculture rises the question how it failed to meet the demand?
It is estimated that Industry sector will post 6.2% growth against 8.8% last year; Is Industrial sector is affected due to Global Crisis?. Whereas Service sector will post 11% growth, which grew at 8.7% last year. If service sector can post 11% (which is always high in contribution to GDP for almost a decade) and Agriculture sector can post 5.4% then India can easily achieve 9% growth; but I doubt the growth rate of Agriculture.
Some where I heard that "Statistics can be made to prove anything - even the truth".
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